First Quarter, 2010

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Dear Shareholders,

What a difference a year makes.  This was a solid quarter as the Fund was ahead of the S&P 500 Index.  It seems like ancient history, but a year ago our quarterly letter was given over to a defense of U.S. equities, an asset class, we wrote, “that has been beaten up, discredited and left for dead.”  We compared the miserable trailing ten-year returns for the S&P 500 Index at the end of March 2009 to those from 1938 and 1975, and noted that buying stocks at such entry points has been richly rewarding.  The financial crisis was everyone’s worst nightmare but it was also the moment value investors had been waiting a generation for.  But now, the S&P 500 is up 77% from the bottom last March, with 478 stocks in the S&P 500 Index up versus a year ago (that’s 96 percent of the index!).  The compelling thirty-year-low valuations have disappeared and the way forward is less clear.  What follows is a more nuanced view of the investment landscape, with a particular focus on those investments we believe can produce positive returns in a more fairly valued market.

Value investors are never completely happy people.  We are enthused by rising stock prices for our portfolio companies, which is the sole reason for our existence (at least professionally).  But rising prices in turn bring higher valuations, more risk and ultimately more angst.  For that reason, as stock prices rose in the first quarter we grew concerned about overly optimistic expectations and sold five holdings in the Fund, an unusually high number.  Each was a profitable investment, and one (Hewlett Packard) that we had held since the Fund’s inception in October 2005 returned 89% since initial purchase including dividends (versus the S&P 500 Index, up 9% in the same period including dividends). 

On the other hand, while valuations make us more guarded about the market as a whole, we continue to believe that the current economic environment, at least in the short term, is generally benign for equities.  We realize that many people disagree with this statement, but we believe the facts are on our side.  Over the last year we have written about the effects of the massive government stimulus both here and abroad.  It has clearly taken hold.  The Index of Leading Economic Indicators just posted its largest year-on-year increase since 1983.  162,000 jobs were created in March, the best showing in almost three years.  A year ago the U.S. was losing more than 700,000 jobs a month.  Home prices have posted seven consecutive month-on-month increases.  Inflation seems dormant, at least in the short term.  There are lots of reasons to be concerned about the longer term, but current economic conditions are clearly on the mend. 

All this is not surprising.  U.S. citizens have paid a lot of money for this recovery, and right now it looks like we bought ourselves a good one.  The problem is, we paid for it the good old American way -- on credit -- and the bill will come due sooner or later.  As we discussed in our last letter, it is this problem of enormous deficits and a soaring debt-to-GDP ratio that keeps us up at night.  These conditions will not solve themselves.  If the deficits were smaller, we could “grow our way out” through increased economic activity leading to higher government revenues.  But the current deficits are simply too high for such a solution -- the math just doesn’t work.  There must be a political solution comprised of some combination of higher taxes and reduced spending.  But anyone who has had the treat of watching the recent healthcare reform bill drag itself Frankenstein-like through the House and Senate must despair about Congress solving our debt problems.  We believe this is the single most important economic issue of the decade, much as ‘stagflation’ typified the late 1970s.   While the chickens have not yet come home to roost, they have certainly been hatched.

But for right now, the issue before us is which stocks are still cheap enough to merit investment after a 77% market run.  Market action this quarter can be summed up as investors coming to accept the fact that the economy is getting better.  They are answering the question we posed in our last letter: ‘What if the world doesn’t end?’  As employment recovers and home prices stabilize, corporate profits will have strong growth over 2009, if only because last year’s miserable earnings (or in many cases last year’s losses) are so easy to surpass.  Our financial companies led the Fund higher, and one of the Fund’s larger positions, Bank of America, was a strong performer in the quarter (up 19%).   The economically sensitive industrial stocks, including Terex (cranes and heavy equipment), up 15%;  Navistar (heavy trucks), up 16%; and Lear (auto parts), up 17%; all benefited from investors’ expectations of better times ahead.  The most frustrating stock in the Fund has got to be Pfizer, which is AA-rated, just raised its dividend, enjoys strong cash flow, and still sells at less than eight times this year’s earnings.  It was down 5% in the quarter.  Teva Pharmaceuticals, on the other hand, was up 12% for the quarter.  The largest maker of generic drugs is clearly benefiting from increased focus on healthcare savings. 

As we mentioned above, we are more concerned with valuations now than a year ago, but we did make two major new investments, Dell Computer and Valero Energy.  Both deserve discussion because, while the jury will be out for a while on whether they are good investments, they epitomize our contrarian investment philosophy.

Dell is the second largest maker of personal computers and servers in the United States.  It was a technology darling in the 1990s, rising from (split-adjusted) 10 cents a share to almost $60 by 2000, when it sold for almost 100 times earnings.  The last decade has brought many changes to the market, not least to Dell.  We bought the stock in March for less than $14, about 11 times our 2011 earnings estimate.  At the same time, we were selling our long-time holding Hewlett Packard, which is the largest maker of PCs.  We purchased Hewlett after it was integrating its unpopular purchase of Compaq Computer and the stock was languishing.  It turned around the Compaq businesses, the technology market rose out of recession and the stock became a terrific investment.  Now, everyone seems to be favorably inclined towards Hewlett and its management, and we believe the stock price reflects this optimistic view.  Dell, on the other hand, reminds us of Hewlett seven years ago: discredited and labeled a technology “has-been”.  The following chart shows the divergence of the two largest PC companies since we purchased Hewlett Packard in 2005:

total return chart

But the investment case for Dell is not based on the fact that its stock price has done poorly this decade while that of its rival has excelled.  Rather, we believe Hewlett is now fairly priced but Dell may be at an important inflection point.  We think a corporate upgrade cycle over the next 12 months is highly likely, and this will disproportionately benefit Dell.  The majority of Dell’s sales are to corporations, where spending on equipment and software in 2009 fell to a 40-year-low relative to GDP, creating strong pent-up demand.  When combined with an aging installed base and a new and well-received operating system (Windows 7), this should create a corporate PC upgrade cycle later this year.  The corporate market is more important to Dell than to any of its peers, so this cycle will likely stem share losses and perhaps drive hardware share gains for Dell for the first time in years.  As always, valuation is key: at 11 times next year’s earnings we think there is a lot of upside to the stock on a fundamental basis.

We have a tongue-in-cheek contrarian test that if the mention of a new stock idea makes a listener “gag” at the awfulness of the industry or the business, then perhaps we’re on the right track.  Valero Energy, the nation’s largest independent oil refinery, definitely has the “gag factor” going for it.  Oil refining -- the business of taking crude oil and turning it into gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products -- has been a dirty, deeply cyclical business for over 100 years.  It is currently suffering its worst slump since the late 1970s, when high oil prices forced Americans to use less gasoline.  In fact, 2009 was the first year since 1978 that Americans drove fewer miles than the year before.  In 2007 Valero sold for $78 a share, but is now selling at $19.  We calculate the value of the refineries is about $53 a share, so we are paying a bit more than one-third of asset value.  Valero is losing money right now, at what we believe is the bottom of the refining cycle.  It remains the only independent refinery with an investment grade rating, and it has established a profitable position in ethanol manufacturing.  As the economy continues to improve, we believe Valero will anticipate a 2011 turn in refining margins and has the potential to be a superlative investment from current levels, even in a mediocre overall market.

Finally, at the end of 2009 we initiated a position in an oil services company, Weatherford International (which was not described in last quarter’s letter since orders were still on the trading desk at year end).  Weatherford is one of the world's largest oil service companies. The company's shares had declined sharply from the high $40s two years ago to the mid-teens as many large oil companies reduced exploration spending in the economic crisis of 2008 and Weatherford's profits declined sharply.  As the world economies improve, we expect exploration spending to increase over the next several years.  Weatherford is well positioned to benefit from this global spending increase with over 75% of its earnings coming from overseas.  In 2012, we estimate the company can earn $2.00.  If the shares return to their historical P/E multiple, the shares should trade in the low $40s, or more than double the current price. While not a part of our investment thesis, we are encouraged by recent industry consolidation, most notably Schlumberger's acquisition of Smith International. In our opinion, this reflects major oil companies' desire to have fewer vendors providing a wider range of services. In this regard, Weatherford could be an attractive take-over candidate.

Business at Grisanti Brown & Partners continues to improve from a year ago -- as is true for many of our portfolio companies, last year’s business conditions are not hard to beat!  The firm remains profitable and we have finished our lease negotiations in Rockefeller Center, maintaining our office space through the end of 2015.  (On the plus side, 2009 was a good year to have a commercial rent negotiation with your landlord.)  Jared Leon, the analyst who started working for the firm after graduating from college thirteen years ago, has decided to try his hand at a start-up hedge fund.  Jared was a terrific colleague.  It was a pleasure watching him mature into a high quality analyst and we wish him all the best in his new venture.

In summary, we expect the economy will continue to improve, but the market will start looking ahead to higher interest rates and troubling government debt issues.  For that reason, we continue to favor those investments (like Dell, Valero and others) that can take advantage of good news that is company-specific and thus not correlated with the overall market.  As always, we continue to be fixated on valuation in addition to good business prospects, because we believe buying a good business at the right price is what ultimately determines your total return.  While these are calmer times than a year ago, with the market up so much, they are actually trickier times to find good investments.  We will continue to work in that direction and look forward to reporting back to you next quarter with the results. 

Grisanti Brown & Partners LLC — Adviser to the Grisanti Brown Value Fund


Before investing you should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges and expenses. This and other information is in the prospectus, a copy of which may be obtained by visiting our website at www.gbpfunds.com or by calling 1-866-775-8439. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest.

The views presented in the letter were those of the Fund managers as of March 31, 2010 and may not reflect their views on the date this letter is first published or at anytime thereafter. These views are intended to assist the shareholders in understanding their investment in the Fund and do not constitute investment advice. None of the information presented should be construed as an offer to sell or recommendation of any security mentioned herein.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.  As a non-diversified fund, the Fund may focus a larger percentage of its assets in the securities of fewer issuers. Concentration of the Fund in a limited number of securities exposes the Fund to greater market risk than if its assets were diversified among a greater number of issuers. Investments in smaller companies generally carry greater risk than is customarily associated with larger companies for various reasons such as narrower markets, limited financial resources and less liquid stock.


Top 10 Holdings*

as of March 31, 2010

Ticker Security Description Percentage of Market Value
FISV FISERV INC. 6.2%
DELL DELL INC. 6.1%
BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORP. 5.9%
WMB WILLIAMS COS INC. 5.6%
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS 5.3%
JPM JP MORGAN CHASE 5.3%
TEVA TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS 5.1%
NAV NAVISTAR INT’L 5.1%
PFE PFIZER 4.9%
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS 4.4%

 

Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC (www.foreside.com)

* Holdings are subject to change