Applied Materials (AMAT)
Applied Materials is the world’s largest maker of semiconductor equipment, the machines that make all sorts of semiconductors, from memory chips to microprocessors. Its largest customers are companies like Intel, Texas Instruments and other chip manufacturers. In the first quarter of 2009, orders of semiconductor equipment reached lows not seen since 1984. While many companies are experiencing serious sales slumps, semiconductor manufacturing is notoriously cyclical, and a quarter-century low in orders is unsustainable in a world that requires many more semiconductors than it did 25 years ago. By the end of 2009 sales had begun to rise. We do not know when sales will fully recover, but we believe that the stock will anticipate such a recovery. Meanwhile, AMAT is the largest company in the industry, with the best balance sheet (only 3% debt to capital), two criteria that we believe give it the ability to weather the storm. By buying the stock at an 11-year low, we think we have reduced the downside risk should this economic downturn worsen. On the other hand, this is an example of the 2008-09 economic crisis creating an opportunity to buy the best company in a growing industry at prices that are quite attractive. This is a company we have always admired, but like many growth companies, was — until recently — always too expensive for our value discipline.
Axis Capital Holdings (AXS)
We are currently in the process of selling all positions in AXS.
Bank of America (BAC)
Our investment in Bank of America is predicated on history repeating itself. When the economy falls into recession, banks increase their provisions for losses, immediately hurting their earnings. Profits drop sharply, but long before the economy is booming again, this provisioning peaks. It’s important to note that this peak occurs several quarters before actual losses peak. In other words, the bank may take a provision for a loss in March when a homeowner stops paying his mortgage — in fact it may write off all or a substantial part of that loan. That provision affects the bank’s earnings immediately. Then, in December, when the house is foreclosed upon and the bank actually loses 30% of its mortgage loan, there is no further loss taken unless the provision was inadequate. In fact, if the bank wrote off more than 30% of the loan in March, it may actually book a gain in December. This seemingly semantic distinction between taking a provision and a loss is actually quite important from an investment standpoint, as it means that banking companies typically report terrible earnings at the beginning of the economic downturn, and their earnings start to improve much earlier than other industries. As is typical in this part of the cycle, Bank of America is reporting large losses. The bank posted two records in 2009, one good and one bad: it reported record revenue, but also record loss provisions. We believe over the next three years the provisions will plummet by 90% (and even that would leave provisions above their ten year average), revenue should remain steady or grow, and earnings will rise to $3.00 a share (more than six times their current level). There are a lot of obstacles still to surmount, including increasing commercial real estate losses and rising unemployment but, again, we believe that three years from now the economic and lending landscape will be much more beneficial than it is today, creating a much better earnings profile at BAC. Also, with the repayment of government TARP funds and the appointment of a new CEO both announced in the past month, two important overhangs for the stock are now gone. As the economy heals, we believe Bank of America should be a major beneficiary.
Becton Dickinson (BDX)
We are currently in the process of selling all positions in BDX.
Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Charles Schwab provides investment products, advice and services to individuals and their advisors. While the company provides its own product options to customers, it’s largely known for its scale in distributing the products of other firms. The firm’s focus on transparency and its history of driving costs down for customers has earned Schwab a reputation as a trusted, conflict-free financial company which, especially in this environment, has led to significant share gains. However, these gains have been obscured by low interest rates and depressed market values. Our investment thesis hinges on Schwab’s continued ability to take market share which, combined with normal interest rates, some recovery in equity market values, and a much lower cost base, will result in dramatic earnings and cash flow growth. Schwab is trading at approximately half its historical valuation range on normalized earnings, a very large gap that we think will close over the next 2-3 years.
Chubb (CB)
Chubb is a large Property and Casualty insurance company that writes personal, commercial and specialty lines. It has one of the best brands in the business. As valuations of all financial companies compressed in 2008 and into 2009, Chubb shares fell below tangible book value for the first time in 25 years. Our view is that the quality of the franchise and the impending improving pricing environment will lift the shares back to normal valuation levels and deliver a strong return. Chubb’s business is best known for its personal lines segment which caters to wealthy individuals. It has established a brand that commands a premium in the marketplace by being very liberal on its claims-paying side. Policyholders know that they have a “no questions asked and here is your check” attitude. Coverage is not cheap, but Chubb provides a tremendous amount of ‘sleep at night’ insurance. The commercial and specialty lines are more traditional and compete successfully in the marketplace. We believe the insurance industry is currently close to the bottom of the pricing cycle and expect conditions to improve over the next year, which should drive the stock toward its historical price to book multiple of 1.6 times, delivering as much as an 80% return on our investment over the next few years.
Cisco Systems (CSCO)
Cisco Systems is the industry leader in data networking equipment for the Internet and other communication networks. Besides being the leader in one of the fastest growing areas of technology -- data connectivity -- the company has one of the best managements in the technology industry, led by CEO John Chambers. In addition, the company has $35 billion of cash on its balance sheet, with no debt. When the stock hit its lows during the market disruption last March, that cash position alone represented almost half (45%) of the entire market capitalization of the company. As is the case at many technology companies, the last year has been a soft one and Cisco has been forced to lay off employees as sales have slowed. Still, in its latest quarterly report it reported signs of growth off of a sluggish bottom, as the book-to-bill ratio exceeded one (more future orders than current sales) for the second time in a row after four terrible quarters. Margins have held up well, though they are off their highs of 2007 due to lower volume. We believe Cisco can grow its earnings at a high-teens rate for the next couple of years as the business recovers. The company’s management and balance sheet lead us to believe that the company will be opportunistic about developing or acquiring the right assets to remain a market leader in data networking, a fast-changing segment of technology. Cisco is an example of a company that is usually valued much more highly in the market than it has been over the last year. We think as the economy mends, the market will return to Cisco and push its valuation higher.
Energizer (ENR)
Energizer was spun out of Ralston Purina in 2000 and since has made a number of acquisitions to expand beyond its core battery business. Our investment thesis is that as Energizer looks more like its diversified peers, its historical valuation discount to those peers will close. Today, Energizer consists of batteries (its largest business), shaving products, feminine care, skin care and infant care products with brands like Energizer, Schick, Edge, Hawaiian Tropic, Banana Boat, Diaper Genie, Playtex and Wet Ones. Approximately 80% of its brands are either number 1 or number 2 in their respective categories. Last year the company acquired Playtex, which had a mostly domestic footprint, with the intention to expand distribution internationally through existing Energizer outlets. This has already benefitted profitability, and we expect this will continue in the near-term. Recently the company has been hurt by currency movements and commodity cost increases. These are important issues, but over time will be overshadowed by the integration benefits we expect management will deliver.
Fiserv (FISV)
Fiserv provides banks and credit unions with processing technology that allows them to deliver everyday capabilities including account processing, online bill pay and other transaction related services. Most customers are medium sized community banks and credit unions in the U.S., although its largest customer -- Bank of America -- is the country’s largest bank. Over 90% of the company’s revenues recur as a result of five year contracts, and these contracts renew with very high frequency. After two decades of strong growth and a PE multiple in the mid 20s, the stock traded at 10x forward earnings in 2008 as a result of several cyclical factors. It has become clear that people will continue to use banks to hold money and make transactions, which drives Fiserv’s franchise. We believe that once interest rates normalize and temporary headwinds abate, Fiserv’s revenue growth will resume and drive even faster EPS and cash flow growth. In the meantime, Fiserv is generating an 8% free cash flow yield to be used to buy back stock, pay down debt and profitably reinvest in the business.
Goldman Sachs (GS)
Goldman Sachs remains a well-managed, well-capitalized, dynamic financial services firm. And, after the events of 2008, that’s more than you can say for many of its U.S. competitors. Its premier position in investment banking and asset management gives it an edge in a marketplace scarred by failures of large, important institutions. As the capital markets continue to thaw, we believe Goldman will take a greater share of IPOs, debt offerings and investment banking advisory business. We believe takeover activity will continue to increase as the markets stabilize and companies are priced at much more realistic valuations. The company’s hedge fund business has stopped its sharp decline, and we believe its Level 3 asset mark-downs are behind them and could actually be written up over the next two years. In December 2008 we purchased shares of Goldman Sachs at 70% of book value. The shares have risen by more than 115% since our purchase, but we expect even more upside is ahead based on what we think are modest assumptions by historical and peer standards. In short, we think that over a three year period Goldman will grow its book value to about $155 per share. Its average multiple of price-to-book since it went public in 1999 is 2.2 times, but in this much different economic environment we believe it is prudent to apply a discount to the average and forecast the stock selling at 1.5 times book or about $230 in 2011.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ)
Hewlett-Packard is one of the premier technology companies in the United States. Some people view it as a printer company, while others see it as a technology hardware company. Both views are only partially correct, and do not fully reflect an important new source of earnings for HPQ. In 2008 Hewlett acquired EDS, originally Ross Perot’s technology services company and a large provider of technology consulting. HPQ’s timing couldn’t have been better. The synergies from the EDS acquisition coupled with the fact that technology service revenues do not decline as much in a recession as technology hardware revenues, meant that Hewlett was able to grow its earnings even in 2008. This was quite a feat for a technology company. Still, the market punished HPQ as hardware revenues did decline. At its March 2009 low the company was selling at only 5.5 times our 2011 earnings projection. While the shares have rebounded sharply since then (up 102%), we continue to believe that Hewlett is an attractive long term investment, as it still sells at about 10 times our 2011 estimate, and as the synergies from the EDS purchase accrue, our estimates could be low. As HPQ begins to derive more and more of its revenues from services rather than hardware, the market should revalue the company upwards. Finally, we are impressed with both the company’s clean balance sheet and its strong management team led by CEO Mark Hurd.
J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM)
The investment thesis for JP Morgan is similar to that of Bank of America -- i.e., sharply falling loss provisions over the next three years will lead to significantly higher earnings. However, we believe the assets and the management at JP Morgan are of higher quality. For that reason, JP Morgan never declined to the low valuations that Bank of America did, but JPM did fall to 50% of book value, where it became very attractive to us. We believe it has emerged from the 2008 crisis as the leading banking institution in the United States. The relative strength of JPM’s balance sheet allowed it to take advantage of opportunities to buy assets like Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual at what we believe three years from now will appear to have been fire sale prices. We believe that JPM will return to normal earning power faster than most financial institutions, and can earn a 15% return on equity by 2012. Thus, we estimate that JPM can earn $6.50 in 2012, and that the stock should sell for 12 times that number, giving us a target price of nearly $80. Even though JPM has appreciated over 100% since purchase in March 2009, we believe there are still strong gains ahead when earnings rise as losses shrink. The company is now emerging stronger in a competitive landscape that is greatly reduced by the devastation of the past year.
Lear Corporation (LEA)
Lear Corporation is a leading supplier of automotive seats, electrical distribution systems and electronic products. It was founded 80 years ago and was a well respected company whose debt load forced them into bankruptcy after the catastrophic collapse of U.S. auto sales over the past two years. On November 11, 2009 the company emerged from bankruptcy with a much strengthened balance sheet and stronger operating metrics. We project that Lear will have ended 2009 with roughly $500 million in net cash (net cash = cash minus all debt) on its balance sheet. We expect Lear’s operations to get a significant lift from the rebound of the global automotive market over the next few years. Lear’s revenue breakdown is: 49% Europe, 36% North America and 15% Rest of World. The opportunity lies in the North American market where production fell by more than 40% from 2007-2009. Assuming a recovery over the next three years in North America (but still 20% lower than the previous peak) and combined with restructuring benefits, we think cash flow (defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA) can triple by 2012 to $1bn. Using an Enterprise Value to EBITDA multiple of 4.5x, the low end of its peer group of auto parts manufacturers, we arrive at a target price of $95. More broadly stated, we like the idea of buying a restructured auto parts maker at a time when auto sales stink and the business is very out of favor. Over three years, we believe sentiment (and results) have very little place to go but up.
Microsoft (MSFT)
What a difference a decade makes: At the end of 1999 Microsoft traded for $54 a share, while the company earned 71 cents a share. That’s 76 times earnings. In 2009, you could buy a considerably less sought-after share for $14.88, a decline of 72%, even though earnings had more than doubled over the decade to $1.87. At its lows in March 2009 the stock was selling at 8 times earnings. Growth has certainly slowed, and the economic backdrop is very different, but as value investors, we focus on these metrics. The company has a host of new products all coming out in the next 12 months, including the launch of Windows 7, the newest version of MSFT’s operating system. This program has received much better reviews than the luke-warm Vista operating system, and it debuted on October 22, 2009. The company has $31 billion in cash with virtually no debt. Its recent search merger with Yahoo and the introduction of Bing, a new search engine to compete with Google, have also been well received by the marketplace and could improve growth in this business. For you Google users, Bing is worth trying at www.bing.com.
Mosaic (MOS)
Mosaic is one of the largest fertilizer producers in the world. Our thesis on Mosaic has both cyclical and secular aspects. From a cyclical perspective, the past two growing seasons have seen a dramatic decline in fertilizer usage worldwide. Farmers can only under-fertilize for so long before soil needs to be replenished with nutrients, and we believe that this will happen in 2010-2011, driving demand and pricing higher. On a longer term basis, we like Mosaic because the world needs more food but worldwide arable acreage is actually decreasing, creating a greater need for yield enhancements like fertilizer. Emerging market populations are moving up the economic ladder and as they do, consumption moves to more grain-intensive proteins (i.e., beef requires four times more grain feed than chicken). In addition, corn is not only used for food but also for fuel (ethanol), which is important as it is the most fertilizer-intensive crop. U.S. regulation requires 15 billion gallons of biofuel use by 2015, 25% higher than current levels, which will have a significant impact on the amount of corn grown domestically. Mosaic has a clean balance sheet with a net cash position of roughly $400 million.
Navistar (NAV)
Navistar is a producer of heavy duty and medium commercial trucks and school buses. The company also manufactures diesel engines for its own use and for sale to third parties. In addition, Navistar has developed a profitable military business over the last three years by leveraging the company’s truck expertise for application into the MRAP platform (Mine Resistant vehicles). Currently heavy truck sales are extremely depressed, running at 50-year lows. We expect truck sales to improve over the next two to three years as an aging fleet requires replacement and new truck emission standards are introduced in 2010. As business returns to more normal levels, we expect the company’s earnings to increase dramatically to between $8 and $10 per share. Assuming the shares sell at 10 times earnings, we believe the stock should appreciate sharply and sell at between $80-100 per share.
Pentair (PNR)
Pentair manufactures pumps, valves, and filters for the residential, commercial and industrial end markets. About 30% of its business is non-water related, as Pentair also makes industrial enclosures. We think this is a very well managed company that is currently depressed, and is poised to show strong profit growth even in a slow recovery. Management has dramatically restructured the company over the past 18 months, creating a much leaner and more profitable company. Approximately 40% of the water division is related to the residential end market, and despite dramatic volume declines, this business is still break-even. Even small improvements in volume will yield large profit growth for this business. The company has recently won big filtration contracts for Starbucks and McDonald’s, along with a large industrial pump contract for New Orleans. We believe that Pentair will be able to earn significantly more than the current street expectations suggest and that the stock has 50% upside potential over the next two to three years.
Pfizer (PFE)
How the mighty have fallen. In 2000 Pfizer sold at $50 a share and earned $.95 that year. Our earnings projection for 2010 ($2.20) is more than double the profit the company reported ten years ago, but the stock is down by more than 60%. There are reasons for the market’s now gloomy view of Pfizer. The company has large patent expirations in 2011 and 2012. For example, Lipitor, the best selling drug in the world, will go off patent in November 2011. For this reason, Pfizer acquired Wyeth for $60 billion in 2009. Wyeth’s more consistent consumer businesses (including products like Advil) will enable Pfizer to create a more diversified and stable earnings stream. Thus, instead of Pfizer’s earnings declining in 2012 by 25%, we now expect them to only decline by 5-10%. Meanwhile, that event is still three years away, and there are interesting new drugs in the pipeline of both Pfizer and Wyeth which could soften the impact of the Lipitor patent cliff. This is a classic value investment: While the long term earnings growth is not spectacular, we believe the stock is just too cheap. It is currently trading at eight times our expected 2011 earnings with a 4% dividend yield (which may rise) and a AA-rated balance sheet. Whatever government health plan is passed this year, we believe it will put pressure on drug prices but be beneficial for drug volumes, as more people will receive health care coverage and thus pharmaceuticals. The President has already agreed to a price reduction with the pharmaceutical companies, so this may be the one piece of the ever-changing health care plan that is knowable.
Target (TGT)
Target is the 8th largest retailer in the world and the 4th largest in the U.S., with 1,700 stores and over $60 billion in annual sales. The majority of the company’s profit is generated from sales in these stores, although about 10% is produced by offering credit cards to customers. Earnings and cash flow have been impacted by a slowdown in consumer spending, combined with a very dramatic deterioration in the credit business. Our belief is that Target’s retail business will continue to take market share of consumer spending in the U.S. partly through growth of its store base by 25% from the current size, while very dramatic credit provisioning in the card business will also slow throughout 2010. Combining these two developments with significant cost control should drive earnings and cash flow growth at an above-normal rate. We believe this will warrant a valuation multiple that is higher than the current multiple, which represents 70% of Target’s 15-year average, driving the stock close to $60 over the next two to three years.
Terex Corp. (TEX)
Terex is a diversified global manufacturer of capital equipment used in end markets such as construction, shipping, mining and infrastructure. The company operates in five segments: Aerial Work Platforms, Construction, Cranes, Materials Processing and Roadbuilding and Utility Products. Terex has been particularly hard hit by the global recession with revenues declining by more than half in the current fiscal year. After having earned over $5 per share in 2008, Terex is expected to have lost money in 2009. With the shares selling for 75% less than two years ago, we think this is the opportunity. In December 2009, Terex announced the sale of its mining business for $1.3 billion in cash. While this will dilute Terex’s earnings in the short term, the transaction has two strong benefits. First, it will greatly strengthen Terex’s balance sheet (the company will have more cash than debt, pro forma). Second, the cash affords management a war chest for possible acquisition at a time when asset values are depressed. Historically, management has an excellent track record of buying assets. Looking forward, we believe the company is well positioned to benefit from improvement in global economies and should be able to earn $2.75- $3.00 per share in two years. Assuming the shares sell at 15x forward earnings, this suggests a target price of $40-45 per share. Longer term we calculate peak earnings power of $6 by 2013.
TEVA Pharmaceuticals (TEVA)
TEVA Pharmaceuticals is a 100-year old Israel-domiciled pharmaceutical company. TEVA is the largest generic drug manufacturer in the world, with a leading U.S. generic share of 24% and holds the important position as the low cost manufacturer in the industry. The company has compounded earnings at over 25% per year for the last ten years, historically trading at 20x forward earnings and a premium to the market. The stock – along with the entire pharmaceutical industry – has lagged the broader market, and today trades at less than 13 times forward earnings and a 20% discount to the S&P 500. TEVA has even underperformed its peers since the market bottom in early 2009, despite the largest and most visible product pipeline in the industry. We believe this pipeline, combined with the global secular trend toward generic drug penetration, will drive results at well above market (and industry) average rates, over time resulting in a premium valuation for the shares and significant upside from current levels.
Walgreen’s (WAG)
Walgreen’s is undergoing a turnaround. It’s not that the chain of over 7,000 stores is broken, but instead that the management of the business had great opportunity for improvement. As Walgreen’s and CVS have consolidated much of the market that was once dominated by less efficient independents, players like Walmart and Target have become much more difficult competitors in the pharmacy. New senior management over the past two years has initiated strategies to rationalize the SKU count, slow store growth, and cut overhead costs which should accelerate earnings and cash flow growth in the next 2-3 years. Revenue growth has sagged but the in-store efforts should favorably impact top line growth, further leveraged by a lower cost structure. Walgreen’s has also developed a health and wellness business to help companies and individuals manage healthcare costs lower. Increasing reimbursement pressure will take its toll on all healthcare players, but we think Walgreen’s can be an important part of the solution to controlling escalating costs. Despite a strong 2009 performance for the stock, the shares still trade below 15x 12 month forward earnings, only about 60% of its 15-year average and below our estimate of fair value.
Wendy’s Arby’s Group (WEN)
Wendy’s Arby’s Group was formed in the Fall of 2008 when Triarc merged its Arby’s business with Wendy’s International. Arby’s is the second largest sandwich chain in the US and offers high quality roast beef and other deli products through 3,500 stores. This business represents about 30% of consolidated revenues, but the investment case revolves around the 6,600 Wendy’s stores. The Wendy’s brand has been adrift for most of this decade as management failed to innovate, market and execute at historical levels. Today, a new board and management team have identified specific strategies to reinvigorate the brand and profitability. The new Wendy’s President was one of the most profitable and respected Wendy’s franchisees, and is focused on closing the profitability gap between company and franchise stores. Just over a year into the turnaround, Wendy’s brand performance has exceeded expectations while the weak economic backdrop has proven more challenging for Arby’s. We believe as the economy stabilizes and value-oriented strategies at Arby’s take hold, the Wendy’s success will show through in terms of above-average cash flow growth and share price performance.
Weatherford International (WFT)
We began to build a position in this oil-field services company during the last week of the fourth quarter. We will more fully discuss WFT and our investment thesis in the first quarter client letter.
Williams Companies (WMB)
The Williams Companies is a diversified energy company that operates in three main areas. First, the exploration and production company produces natural gas from several basins in the United States, but the largest resource play is located in the Rocky Mountains. The company also operates a “mid-stream” business. This business gathers and processes natural gas and its related by-products. Finally, the company owns and operates one of the country’s premier natural gas pipeline systems in the United States. Given the extremely depressed state of natural gas prices, we believe the shares sell at a significant discount to our estimate of the company’s asset value of $33 per share. As gas prices recover, we expect the shares to trade closer to our asset value estimate. This investment is a good example of the Grisanti Brown philosophy of identifying companies that represent Assets at a Discount. We believe the value of Williams’ pipelines, mid-stream refineries and gas fields far exceeds the current share price.
The views presented in the letter were those of Grisanti Brown & Partners LLC as of December 31, 2009, and may not reflect their views on the date this letter is first published or at anytime thereafter. These views are intended to assist in the understanding of investments by Grisanti Brown & Partners LLC and do not constitute investment advice. None of the information presented should be construed as an offer to sell or recommendation of any security mentioned herein.
Before investing you should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges and expenses. This and other information is in the prospectus, a copy of which may be obtained by visiting our website at www.gbpfunds.com or by calling 1-866-775-8439. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest.
The views presented in the letter were those of the Fund managers as of December 31, 2009 and may not reflect their views on the date this letter is first published or at anytime thereafter. These views are intended to assist the shareholders in understanding their investment in the Fund and do not constitute investment advice. None of the information presented should be construed as an offer to sell or recommendation of any security mentioned herein.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. As a non-diversified fund, the Fund may focus a larger percentage of its assets in the securities of fewer issuers. Concentration of the Fund in a limited number of securities exposes the Fund to greater market risk than if its assets were diversified among a greater number of issuers. Investments in smaller companies generally carry greater risk than is customarily associated with larger companies for various reasons such as narrower markets, limited financial resources and less liquid stock.
as of December 31, 2009
| Ticker | Security Description | Percentage of Market Value |
|---|---|---|
| FISV | FISERV INC. | 6.2% |
| HPQ | HEWLETT-PACKARD | 6.0% |
| BAC | BANK OF AMERICA CORP. | 5.6% |
| PFE | PFIZER | 5.4% |
| WMB | WILLIAMS COS INC. | 5.4% |
| TEVA | TEVA PHARMACEUTICALS | 4.7% |
| JPM | JP MORGAN CHASE | 4.7% |
| NAV | NAVISTAR INT’L | 4.6% |
| SCHW | SCHWAB (CHARLES) CORP. | 4.5% |
| CB | CHUBB CORP. | 4.4% |
Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC (www.foresides.com)
* Holdings are subject to change